SHFE/LME price ratio continues to deteriorate, warehouse warrant premium collapses, and market divergence further widens [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper].

Published: Feb 21, 2025 11:48

February 21, 2025: Today, warehouse warrant prices ranged from $38/mt to $50/mt, QP March, with an average decrease of $10/mt compared to the previous trading day; B/L prices ranged from $48/mt to $60/mt, QP March, with an average decrease of $2/mt compared to the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) ranged from $2/mt to $10/mt, QP March, with an average decrease of $1/mt compared to the previous trading day. The quotations referenced cargoes arriving in late February and early March.

During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio for SHFE copper 2503 contract was around -1,250 yuan/mt. LME copper 3M-Mar was at Back $1.6/mt, while March date to April date was around Back $4.45/mt. The SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate during the day due to concerns over increased export volumes from domestic smelters in the future, leading suppliers to sell bonded warehouse warrants at low prices. However, due to tight supply of forward-month B/Ls, registered B/Ls and EQ cargoes remained firm in actual transactions. A reverse premium emerged between warehouse warrants and B/Ls, with significant disagreements between buyers and sellers.

Currently, the actual transaction price for pyro high-quality copper warehouse warrants is $50/mt, mainstream pyro is $44/mt, and wet-process is $38/mt. High-quality copper B/Ls are priced at $60/mt, mainstream pyro at around $54/mt, and wet-process at $48/mt. CIF B/L EQ copper ranges from $2/mt to $10/mt, with an average of $6/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Indonesia Sees Copper Prices Rising Through 2032
12 mins ago
Indonesia Sees Copper Prices Rising Through 2032
Read More
Indonesia Sees Copper Prices Rising Through 2032
Indonesia Sees Copper Prices Rising Through 2032
Indonesia expects copper prices to rise through 2032, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and strong demand from energy transition and infrastructure sectors.
12 mins ago
Goldman Sachs Warns on Copper Risks, Cuts Price Forecast
15 mins ago
Goldman Sachs Warns on Copper Risks, Cuts Price Forecast
Read More
Goldman Sachs Warns on Copper Risks, Cuts Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs Warns on Copper Risks, Cuts Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs has trimmed its copper price forecast, warning that prolonged geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs could weaken demand and push prices lower.
15 mins ago
Hayland Copper Approved by U.S. Government, Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
2 hours ago
Hayland Copper Approved by U.S. Government, Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
Read More
Hayland Copper Approved by U.S. Government, Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
Hayland Copper Approved by U.S. Government, Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]
SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,398/mt, touching a high of $12,398/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $12,280/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at $12,328.5/mt, down 0.16%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 294,000 lots, a decrease of 473 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,040 yuan/mt, touching a high of 96,300 yuan/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then shifted downward, hitting a low of 95,540 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 95,850 yuan/mt, down 0.74%. Trading volume reached 33,000 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, an increase of 1,074 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears adding positions.
2 hours ago
SHFE/LME price ratio continues to deteriorate, warehouse warrant premium collapses, and market divergence further widens [SMM Yangshan Spot Copper]. - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)